Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:42:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd04b…9b7b politics 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%8W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$5
sports 26% −$2
other 18% −$1
crypto 7% −$2
world 5% −$1
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
all 55 -9.3% -17.9% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -33.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses8 / 47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage230d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $91 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 11 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $88 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $183 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $178 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 03 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 01 $89 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $190 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $1 $0 -14%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 25 $89 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 23 $92 $0 -0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $91 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 17 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 16 $1 $0 -50%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 12 $95 $0 +0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 08 $92 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $96 −$1 -1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $92 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 04 $94 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 01 $283 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Dec 25 $94 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 21 $77 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $2 $0 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 20 $73 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 18 $96 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $1 $0 -33%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 15 $95 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 10 $94 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 06 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on December 4? Dec 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $102 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $2 $0 -12%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 30 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 29 $98 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $98 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 21? Nov 23 $95 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 20 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $1 −$1 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $91 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 44h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $91 44h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $88 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 17d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 17d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 19d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $87 100d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $87 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL No 0¢ $0 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 0¢ $1 107d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 107d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 111d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $90 119d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $90 121d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $91 128d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 131d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $89 135d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $89 136d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 136d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 139d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 139d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $88 139d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $88 140d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 140d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.67 · official $90.67 (match) · 215 history records