Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd04a…d7ec other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized +$363 · open −$373
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate54%63W / 53L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$768per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$7,792now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,173
7 days−$2,514
14 days−$2,355
30 days−$587
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$3,725
other 30% −$5,219
politics 24% +$1,187
sports 8% −$167
finance 3% +$159
economics 2% −$60
tech 2% −$2
crypto 0% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +6.8% -3.4% 62% 50% -22.9%
≤30d 37 +12.0% +1.3% 65% 51% -11.7%
≤90d 66 -16.1% -24.1% 52% 33% -14.9%
all 116 -7.9% -16.7% 54% 34% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 34% -9.5%
10% -24.7% 30% -18.1%
15% -32.0% 19% -26.0%
20% -38.6% 15% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$205 vs −$263 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$7,792
Realized+$363
Unrealized−$373
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses63 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions5
Markets (closed)116 / 121
History coverage243d
Avg bet$768
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $3,000 $2,978 −$22 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2,965 $2,776 −$189 (-6%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 82¢ 74¢ $1,100 $1,001 −$99 (-9%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $1,000 $988 −$12 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $50 −$50 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 +$21 +55%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $605 +$240 +40%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $301 +$40 +13%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $203 −$163 -80%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 +$101 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 +$90 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,018 −$3,000 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$255 +250%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $806 −$806 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1,207 +$279 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $1,400 +$439 +31%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5,008 +$289 +6%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $212 −$210 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,019 +$647 +32%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $505 −$500 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 +$4 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $260 −$71 -27%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 02 $2,174 +$78 +4%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? Jun 02 $938 +$81 +9%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $458 +$663 +145%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $223 +$504 +226%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $287 −$282 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson May 26 $51 −$50 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $100 +$87 +87%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $350 +$81 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $1,560 +$572 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $830 +$293 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $2,990 +$77 +3%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $193 −$190 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $102 +$86 +84%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 06 $1,086 +$29 +3%
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Apr 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? Apr 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 31 $420 +$107 +26%
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 26 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 26 $3,122 +$128 +4%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $2,224 +$59 +3%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $4,234 +$284 +7%
Will François Piquemal be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 202 Mar 22 $200 −$139 -70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $39 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $204 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $503 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $30 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $37 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 71¢ $605 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $301 20h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 21h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 22h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $509 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $101 23h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $744 24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $149 24h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $149 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,792.12 · official $7,825.89 (match) · 660 history records