Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd046…c496 sports 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,385 (-18%) realized −$1,384 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate39%55W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$69
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$1,108
other 17% −$263
world 16% +$49
politics 3% −$94
finance 1% $0
economics 1% +$18
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 16 -14.4% -22.5% 62% 19% -17.7%
≤90d 31 -7.8% -16.6% 65% 29% -12.3%
all 141 -20.5% -28.1% 39% 31% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 31% -28.5%
10% -34.9% 30% -35.3%
15% -41.2% 28% -41.6%
20% -47.0% 28% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$46 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$1,097
Realized−$1,384
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses55 / 86
Open positions24
Markets (closed)141 / 165
History coverage145d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 89¢ 93¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $87 $89 +$2 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $61 $69 +$7 (+12%)
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+8%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 85¢ 84¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 92¢ 99¢ $42 $45 +$3 (+7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 83¢ 92¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 35¢ 48¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+36%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No 44¢ 40¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 68¢ 58¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-14%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by between 3% and 6%? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? No 86¢ 1¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $121 +$11 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 13 $23 +$2 +7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 13 $22 −$8 -36%
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? Jun 13 $22 +$11 +51%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $79 +$4 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $8 +$7 +81%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $25 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $80 +$27 +34%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $10 +$1 +7%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? May 30 $25 +$1 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $11 +$1 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $61 −$61 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 May 19 $24 +$8 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $60 +$9 +15%
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? May 11 $10 −$4 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $110 +$53 +48%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 30 $20 +$17 +84%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 29 $20 +$40 +200%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 15 $100 +$22 +22%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 30 $100 +$193 +193%
Will Alabama win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iowa State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $103 −$103 -100%
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. Auburn Tigers Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Wichita State Shockers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane Mar 25 $100 −$100 -100%
UCLA Bruins vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers Mar 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Virginia win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $57 −$57 -100%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Vanderbilt win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Gonzaga win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $79 −$79 -100%
Troy Trojans vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs Mar 22 $150 −$150 -100%
Utah State Aggies vs. Villanova Wildcats Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $10 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $50 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 2d
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $20 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? BUY No 44¢ $20 4d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 85¢ $50 4d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $50 4d
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY No 91¢ $50 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $40 4d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $50 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $67 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $21 9d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $9 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $10 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $5 11d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 5¢ $3 16d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 6¢ $0 16d
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 18d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on SELL Yes 4¢ $9 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,096.70 · official $1,096.70 (match) · 1251 history records