Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:35:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D0
0xd041…1d0d
crypto · 46 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$115 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$104 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$14
Realized−$104
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 31
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage113d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 3 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 19¢ 19¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by March 15? No 14¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Trump and JD Vance not shake hands during the day of the 2026 State of the Union address? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Winter Games 2026: Norway (-4.5) vs. USA (+4.5) gold medals? USA 5¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? No 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? No 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address? No 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? No 31¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 21? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$4 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$14 +264%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 23 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Feb 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $10 +$6 +58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 21? Feb 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Winter Games 2026: Norway (-4.5) vs. USA (+4.5) gold medals? Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times in Rome, Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on February 20? Feb 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Feb 19 $30 +$54 +180%
Will Trump and JD Vance not shake hands during the day of the 2026 Sta Feb 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Apple announce the iPhone 17e by March 15? Feb 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Feb 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Feb 19 $30 +$51 +169%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Feb 19 $40 +$47 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Feb 19 $40 −$28 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 19 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 19 $30 −$16 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Feb 19 $70 +$32 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 19 $17 −$17 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 75% +$5
politics 10% −$65
sports 5% −$15
weather 3% −$20
other 2% −$10
tech 2% −$15
world 2% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-39.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -10.5% -19.0% 32% 32% -26.7%
≤30d 19 -10.5% -19.0% 32% 32% -26.7%
≤90d 19 -10.5% -19.0% 32% 32% -26.7%
all 42 -32.7% -39.2% 26% 26% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.2% 26% -23.9%
10% -45.0% 26% -31.2%
15% -50.3% 26% -37.8%
20% -55.2% 24% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.62 · official $18.62 · 91 history records