Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:30:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd03c…d6ac crypto 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate69%66W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day52.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -6.6% -15.5% 69% 36% -14.4%
≤30d 95 -6.6% -15.5% 69% 36% -14.4%
≤90d 95 -6.6% -15.5% 69% 36% -14.4%
all 95 -6.6% -15.5% 69% 36% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 36% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 21% -22.6%
15% -31.0% 11% -30.1%
20% -37.7% 2% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses66 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage3d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day52.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $29 −$14 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $30 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $66 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $23 +$11 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $58 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $135 −$21 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $67 +$12 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $87 −$20 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $54 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $39 +$15 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $27 +$12 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $41 −$33 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $20 −$9 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$15 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $18 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $16 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $16 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $16 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $16 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $29 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 228 history records