Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:33:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D0 0xd03b…184c sports 301 markets active 2h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,696 (+5%) realized +$5,870 · open −$174
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%139W / 158L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$405per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$1,462est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$399now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$616
7 days−$221
14 days−$5,024
30 days−$3,258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$3,972
other 0% +$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -2.3% -11.6% 36% 33% -11.4%
≤30d 255 -8.7% -17.4% 43% 40% -12.3%
≤90d 297 -1.5% -10.9% 47% 44% -6.3%
all 297 -1.5% -10.9% 47% 44% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 44% -6.3%
10% -19.4% 39% -15.3%
15% -27.2% 32% -23.5%
20% -34.4% 26% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$556) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$223 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$399
Realized+$5,870
Unrealized−$174
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses139 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,462
Open positions4
Markets (closed)297 / 301
History coverage42d
Avg bet$405
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 Over 57¢ 36¢ $458 $285 −$173 (-38%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $97 $94 −$3 (-3%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Under 49¢ 84¢ $7 $13 +$5 (+71%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 53¢ 35¢ $10 $6 −$3 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 20 $15 −$2 -14%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 20 $22 −$1 -6%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $1 +$4 +276%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $45 +$45 +101%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $231 +$169 +73%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $12 −$11 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 19 $794 −$782 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $33 −$32 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 18 $88 +$32 +36%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $80 +$57 +72%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$8 -41%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $72 +$25 +35%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $76 −$6 -8%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 18 $41 −$4 -9%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $3 $0 -4%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $2 +$3 +105%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $343 −$337 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $26 −$13 -51%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $38 −$2 -4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $3,240 −$97 -3%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $276 +$120 +44%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +106%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 16 $219 −$216 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $10 +$25 +238%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $2,852 +$819 +29%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $0 $0 +120%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $1,569 +$405 +26%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 +$15 +325%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $383 −$376 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $15 −$14 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $6 −$3 -40%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $5 −$3 -55%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 11 $14 +$5 +36%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $161 +$57 +36%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $0 $0 -1%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 11 $60 +$68 +114%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $41 +$62 +152%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $1,946 −$1,547 -80%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5) Jun 11 $1 +$4 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 57¢ $116 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 57¢ $116 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 57¢ $116 1h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 57¢ $116 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 53¢ $10 5h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 34¢ $2 7h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $98 8h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 22¢ $12 9h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 40¢ $20 9h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 25¢ $15 9h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 41¢ $22 9h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $7 15h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 45¢ $12 26h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $291 31h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $121 31h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $6 31h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $47 31h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $47 31h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $45 31h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $47 31h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $47 31h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $47 31h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $47 31h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $47 31h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 31h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 46¢ $47 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 32h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $398.80 · official $398.13 (match) · 863 history records