Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D0 0xd039…b0b6 sports 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate73%30W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day28.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$262now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$4
other 25% −$7
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -1.4% -10.8% 73% 51% -10.6%
≤30d 41 -1.4% -10.8% 73% 51% -10.6%
≤90d 41 -1.4% -10.8% 73% 51% -10.6%
all 41 -1.4% -10.8% 73% 51% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 51% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 24% -19.1%
15% -27.1% 10% -27.0%
20% -34.3% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$20 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$262
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses30 / 11
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions10
Markets (closed)41 / 52
History coverage3d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day28.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+29%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+27%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$4 +26%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$5 +32%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $50 +$5 +10%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $50 +$2 +4%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $50 +$4 +8%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $75 −$33 -44%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $40 +$3 +7%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $50 +$7 +13%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +50%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $50 +$9 +18%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $75 +$5 +7%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $50 +$6 +12%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$51 +250%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 +$5 +17%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $40 +$5 +14%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $11 +$3 +28%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$5 +17%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -85%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$8 -76%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $30 +$16 +52%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $70 +$10 +14%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$3 -32%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 +$3 +33%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$2 +3%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 +$1 +15%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 +$13 +31%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 82¢ $40 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $40 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $50 1h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 7h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 92¢ $50 7h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $50 7h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 46¢ $42 8h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $20 9h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $30 11h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $50 11h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $25 13h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $50 13h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $50 13h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $40 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 25h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $50 25h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $100 27h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 84¢ $50 29h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $50 29h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $15 30h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 31h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 89¢ $40 33h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 33h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 87¢ $30 33h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $10 46h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 91¢ $10 46h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $262.01 · official $262.01 (match) · 127 history records