Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:14:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D0
0xd038…3142
crypto · 1555 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$75 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$57 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$810
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses913 / 288
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions354
Markets (closed)1201 / 1555
History coverage162d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 354 History 1201 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days+$60
14 days+$28
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? No 89¢ 88¢ $26 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-18%)
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 84¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 97¢ 97¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Russia coup attempt in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? No 93¢ 93¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Trump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of June? Yes 97¢ 93¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Manuel Bompard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 90¢ 91¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bally Bagayoko be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 96¢ 94¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 87¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 95¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 92¢ 92¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$5 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$2 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$4 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $13 +$9 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% −$14
other 16% −$33
weather 9% −$11
world 7% +$8
politics 6% −$18
finance 5% +$5
tech 4% $0
sports 1% −$6
culture 1% −$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 356 -4.3% -13.4% 75% 44% -7.1%
≤30d 897 -2.2% -11.5% 81% 35% -8.5%
≤90d 986 -8.7% -17.4% 75% 32% -11.5%
all 1201 -4.8% -13.9% 76% 36% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 36% -10.8%
10% -22.1% 17% -19.3%
15% -29.6% 9% -27.1%
20% -36.5% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $810.21 · official $810.22 (match) · 3500 history records