Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:39:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd036…4b27 weather 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-3%) realized −$6 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$53
14 days−$104
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 28 -14.2% -22.4% 32% 32% -13.8%
≤90d 28 -14.2% -22.4% 32% 32% -13.8%
all 28 -14.2% -22.4% 32% 32% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 32% -13.8%
10% -29.8% 32% -22.0%
15% -36.6% 32% -29.5%
20% -42.8% 29% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$14 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage30d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 13¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $16 −$16 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? Jun 07 $34 +$18 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $8 +$19 +225%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 2? Jun 04 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 2? Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $43 −$42 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $11 −$10 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 30? May 31 $43 +$47 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 28? May 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 28? May 28 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 27? May 27 $23 −$23 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 26? May 26 $10 +$8 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 25? May 25 $7 +$29 +450%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 23? May 24 $75 +$37 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 22? May 23 $43 +$41 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 22? May 22 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on May 20? May 21 $10 +$26 +253%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on May 20? May 20 $8 +$14 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 17? May 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on May 20? May 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 63¢ $42 26h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 8? BUY Yes 29¢ $12 6d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 8? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 7d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 7? BUY Yes 64¢ $34 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5? SELL Yes $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 5? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 10d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 5? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 4? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 11d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 3? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 2? BUY Yes 37¢ $44 13d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 2? BUY Yes $7 13d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 1? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 14d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 1? BUY Yes 55¢ $39 14d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 31? SELL Yes $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 31? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 15d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $11 16d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 16d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 16d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 29? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 28? SELL Yes $0 17d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 28? SELL Yes $0 18d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 28? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 18d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 28? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 18d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 28? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 28? BUY Yes $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 64 history records