Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:28:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd035…f165 weather 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (205 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,605 (-21%) realized −$10,039 · open −$566
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%29W / 25L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$611per market
Trades / day204.7pace
Fees−$294est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2,198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$12
sports 23% −$4
politics 15% +$173
other 4% −$994
weather 4% +$505
finance 0% +$254
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (205 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -11.3% -19.8% 78% 33% -5.7%
≤30d 54 +2.4% -7.3% 54% 41% -6.6%
≤90d 54 +2.4% -7.3% 54% 41% -6.6%
all 54 +2.4% -7.3% 54% 41% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover204.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 41% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 28% -15.6%
15% -24.3% 24% -23.7%
20% -31.7% 15% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
21.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$62 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$2,198
Realized−$10,039
Unrealized−$566
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses29 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$294
Open positions131
Markets (closed)54 / 82
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$611
Trades / day204.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 131 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 25¢ 40¢ $163 $259 +$97 (+60%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $248 $255 +$6 (+3%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $242 $242 −$0 (-0%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? No 23¢ 14¢ $268 $165 −$102 (-38%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 60¢ 61¢ $142 $144 +$2 (+1%)
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $228 $140 −$88 (-39%)
Will Nansen launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 14¢ $207 $118 −$89 (-43%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 16¢ 12¢ $127 $102 −$25 (-20%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $69 $64 −$4 (-7%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? No 94¢ 100¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+7%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 38¢ 38¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? Yes 12¢ 17¢ $37 $52 +$15 (+39%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? No 99¢ 99¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 97¢ 99¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Republican Party win the TX-32 House seat? No 19¢ 28¢ $21 $31 +$10 (+49%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 39¢ 39¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+2%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $15 $23 +$8 (+57%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $41 $22 −$19 (-46%)
Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 34¢ $27 $18 −$9 (-33%)
Will Aster reach $2.00 by December 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 10¢ $54 $17 −$37 (-68%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $48 $16 −$31 (-66%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-30%)
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 87¢ 88¢ $14 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $675 +$138 +20%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $220 +$41 +19%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 15 $346 +$36 +10%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $4,842 +$237 +5%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,971 +$140 +7%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,675 +$300 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $478 −$389 -81%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $371 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $98 +$254 +258%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Heather Watson vs Beatriz Haddad Ma Jun 07 $785 −$91 -12%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $146 −$141 -97%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $132 −$132 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $239 +$60 +25%
Bolivia vs. Scotland: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $198 +$95 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 4? Jun 05 $56 +$7 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 4? Jun 05 $82 −$10 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 4? Jun 05 $97 +$78 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $26 −$2 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $24 −$6 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $33 +$12 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $29 +$11 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 4? Jun 04 $93 +$34 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 4? Jun 04 $93 +$297 +318%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 4? Jun 04 $62 +$4 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 4? Jun 04 $93 +$128 +139%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $47 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 −$4 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 2? Jun 02 $44 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $22 −$19 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $59 +$10 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 −$10 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $13 +$15 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 2? Jun 02 $70 −$45 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $78 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $35 −$30 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 2? Jun 02 $69 −$52 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 2? Jun 02 $38 +$5 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 02 $108 −$22 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 92°F or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $30 +$21 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 1? Jun 02 $29 +$13 +44%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 1? Jun 02 $41 +$50 +121%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 02 $87 +$25 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 1? Jun 02 $276 +$15 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 1? Jun 02 $95 −$24 -25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 1? Jun 02 $27 +$2 +7%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $418 −$115 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 13¢ $13 25m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 95¢ $28 26m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 7¢ $19 41m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 14¢ $26 42m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 14¢ $25 45m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 16¢ $4 55m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 14¢ $20 56m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 15¢ $22 56m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 13¢ $4 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 13¢ $1 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 13¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 13¢ $14 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 16¢ $35 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 16¢ $36 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 16¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 16¢ $0 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 91¢ $225 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 17¢ $8 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 17¢ $17 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 17¢ $0 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 90¢ $156 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 89¢ $8 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY No 89¢ $10 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? SELL No 91¢ $170 3h
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 3h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,197.99 · official $2,183.08 (match) · 3500 history records