Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd033…1ec3 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-7%) realized −$41 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$74
14 days+$74
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$36
politics 13% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-27.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.1% -11.4% 80% 60% +6.4%
≤30d 5 -2.1% -11.4% 80% 60% +6.4%
≤90d 5 -2.1% -11.4% 80% 60% +6.4%
all 7 -19.8% -27.4% 57% 43% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.4% 43% -17.3%
10% -34.4% 29% -25.2%
15% -40.7% 14% -32.5%
20% -46.5% 0% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$46 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage161d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 76¢ 62¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 98¢ $25 $33 +$8 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $119 +$17 +14%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 24 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $140 +$37 +26%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Jun 22 $52 +$20 +39%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute Jan 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 23 $100 −$28 -28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $25 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 21¢ $10 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 87¢ $119 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $66 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 62¢ $68 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 2d
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? BUY No 72¢ $52 150d
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute BUY Yes 22¢ $100 151d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $72 152d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $100 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.10 · official $115.10 (match) · 17 history records