Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:03:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd02a…4771 sports 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,827 (-2%) realized −$2,715 · open −$112
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%175W / 224L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$432per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$2,388est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,914now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 41d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5,158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -28.2% -35.0% 40% 40% -33.8%
≤30d 309 -8.7% -17.4% 44% 44% -14.4%
≤90d 399 -9.4% -18.0% 44% 44% -12.2%
all 399 -9.4% -18.0% 44% 44% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 44% -12.2%
10% -25.9% 43% -20.6%
15% -33.0% 39% -28.3%
20% -39.6% 34% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$415 vs −$346 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$5,914
Realized−$2,715
Unrealized−$112
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses175 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$2,388
Open positions8
Markets (closed)399 / 408
History coverage41d
Avg bet$432
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $2,629 $2,602 −$27 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $1,731 $1,696 −$35 (-2%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 47¢ 46¢ $820 $794 −$26 (-3%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 28¢ 27¢ $430 $415 −$15 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 55¢ 55¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season KRÜ Blaze 12¢ 10¢ $38 $33 −$5 (-12%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B 4ikibamboni 65¢ 64¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 +$5 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4,084 +$4,064 +100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 16 $840 −$840 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $389 +$222 +57%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $1,154 +$811 +70%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Jun 15 $364 +$227 +62%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+2.5) Jun 15 $330 −$330 -100%
Game Handicap: GAL (-1.5) vs Eintracht Spandau (+1.5) Jun 15 $510 −$510 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $903 −$903 -100%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $305 −$305 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$95 +93%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $360 +$670 +186%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $1,336 +$1,018 +76%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $71 +$59 +83%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $598 +$484 +81%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $141 −$141 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $160 −$160 -100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Gr Jun 14 $86 −$86 -100%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 14 $69 −$69 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
Game Handicap: C9 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 14 $231 −$231 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $4,087 −$4,087 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $102 +$210 +206%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $203 +$232 +114%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $4,942 −$4,942 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $106 +$29 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $114 −$114 -100%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 13 $304 −$304 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $547 −$547 -100%
Game Handicap: ES (-1.5) vs Anubis Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $539 −$539 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 13 $164 −$164 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $3,736 −$3,736 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $553 +$214 +39%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $283 +$135 +48%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $1,299 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $660 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $711 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $304 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 65¢ $28 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 28¢ $439 2h
Valorant: University War vs KRÜ Blaze (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: BUY KRÜ Blaze 12¢ $39 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $7 20h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $29 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $1,441 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 23h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1,054 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 24h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1,386 24h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 47¢ $833 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $878 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $866 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 9¢ $5 43h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $68 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $132 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $74 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 65¢ $566 2d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 58¢ $1,154 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $423 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY LYON 51¢ $101 2d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 50¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs MARKandLARRY (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series BUY MARKandLARRY 12¢ $92 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 61¢ $91 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 61¢ $91 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,914.20 · official $5,914.20 (match) · 1095 history records