Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T15:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd029…81c5 tech 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-1%) realized −$4 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day38.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$8
other 26% +$23
tech 20% −$8
world 8% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +13.6% +2.8% 67% 44% -2.4%
≤30d 9 +13.6% +2.8% 67% 44% -2.4%
≤90d 9 +13.6% +2.8% 67% 44% -2.4%
all 9 +13.6% +2.8% 67% 44% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.8% 44% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.0% 22% -11.7%
15% -16.0% 11% -20.3%
20% -24.2% 11% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.07 per $1 lost it wins $5.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)9 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day38.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? Yes 60¢ 67¢ $33 $36 +$4 (+12%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 91¢ 92¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+1%)
Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-0%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 74¢ 73¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 82¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 67¢ 34¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-49%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-41%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $4 $2 −$1 (-39%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No 54¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $80 +$16 +20%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10 +$11 +116%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $21 −$4 -19%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $254 +$8 +3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 21 $6 −$1 -17%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 21 $36 +$2 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $12 −$4 -30%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 19 $7 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 1m
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $2 46m
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 92¢ $6 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 92¢ $49 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 92¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 92¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 92¢ $9 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 89¢ $8 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $6 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $0 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $7 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $3 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $1 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 91¢ $6 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 92¢ $29 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 93¢ $46 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 90¢ $9 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 88¢ $10 2h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $6 5h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $5 5h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $2 5h
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $3 5h
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 7h
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 15h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $4 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.55 · official $143.55 (match) · 150 history records