Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:43:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd028…e86a crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 588d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$116 (-6%) realized −$131 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$254
7 days+$254
14 days+$254
30 days+$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$205
crypto 36% −$43
sports 16% −$51
politics 1% +$11
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -10.1% -18.7% 57% 57% +12.1%
≤30d 7 -10.1% -18.7% 57% 57% +12.1%
≤90d 7 -10.1% -18.7% 57% 57% +12.1%
all 35 +0.1% -9.4% 54% 43% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 43% -4.3%
10% -18.1% 40% -13.4%
15% -26.0% 34% -21.8%
20% -33.2% 26% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$35 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

588d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 38
History coverage588d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 57¢ $116 $125 +$10 (+8%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $710 +$404 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$102 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$24 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 05 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 05 $2 +$2 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 05 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 16 $7 −$4 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 16 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 16 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 16 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 16 $6 +$6 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Feb 12 $39 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Feb 12 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Feb 12 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 12 $51 −$26 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 12 $16 +$14 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 12 $50 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 11 $10 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 11 $49 −$4 -7%
US strikes Iran by February 10, 2026? Feb 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 10 $39 $0 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 12 $169 −$169 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August? Aug 12 $88 +$81 +92%
Ethereum above $3,000 on November 15? Nov 11 $42 +$26 +61%
Ethereum above $2,500 on November 8? Nov 09 $33 +$9 +28%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $23 +$11 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $117 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $710 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $92 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $92 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 13h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 103d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.13 · official $150.13 (match) · 244 history records