Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd026…d74b crypto 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$268 (-4%) realized −$271 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%71W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$304
other 12% −$47
world 7% +$32
sports 1% +$103
culture 0% +$6
politics 0% −$7
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +28.2% +16.0% 65% 53% +13.7%
≤30d 17 +28.2% +16.0% 65% 53% +13.7%
≤90d 18 +51.3% +36.9% 67% 56% +55.0%
all 134 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 40% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 40% -12.7%
10% -21.3% 24% -21.1%
15% -28.9% 17% -28.7%
20% -35.9% 16% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$20 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses71 / 63
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)134 / 141
History coverage178d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $97 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 34¢ 42¢ $23 $28 +$5 (+23%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$41 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$21 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $12 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $13 +$14 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $25 +$109 +444%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Mar 02 $100 −$9 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 01 $180 +$8 +4%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Mar 01 $16 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 6? Mar 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Mar 01 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow? Mar 01 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Trump and Netanyahu handshake last 2–6 seconds? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Mar 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? Mar 01 $13 −$13 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by January 9? Mar 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31? Mar 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 01 $213 −$12 -6%
Will Jensen Huang say "Grok" during NVIDIA keynote? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh Mar 01 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 01 $84 −$9 -10%
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $156 −$74 -47%
Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026? Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 28 $67 −$67 -100%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $35 +$188 +538%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Feb 28 $23 $0 +1%
Maduro mugshot released by January 16? Jan 13 $20 −$18 -88%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 13 $3 −$2 -58%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jan 13 $1 $0 +17%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jan 12 $10 −$5 -53%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 08 $10 −$8 -82%
North Korea missile launch by January 31? Jan 08 $15 −$5 -36%
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times d Jan 08 $1 +$2 +227%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jan 08 $8 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jan 08 $12 $0 -2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 08 $17 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in January 2026? Jan 06 $126 +$18 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $39 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $40 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $16 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $12 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $13 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $7 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $31 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $7 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $14 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 51m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.42 · official $174.20 · 528 history records