Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd026…b10b crypto 267 markets active 9h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$104 (-3%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate52%139W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day128.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days−$161
14 days−$147
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 243 +6.2% -3.9% 52% 40% -16.7%
≤30d 267 +6.6% -3.6% 52% 37% -14.0%
≤90d 267 +6.6% -3.6% 52% 37% -14.0%
all 267 +6.6% -3.6% 52% 37% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.6% 37% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -12.8% 30% -22.2%
15% -21.2% 26% -29.7%
20% -28.9% 16% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses139 / 128
Open positions0
Markets (closed)267 / 267
History coverage10d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day128.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 267 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $43 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$6 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $73 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $44 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $43 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $73 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$6 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $38 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $65 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $86 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $76 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $114 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $56 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $85 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $6 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1593 history records