trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 4 | +2.7% | -7.1% | 50% | 25% | +47.9% |
| all | 16 | -17.3% | -25.2% | 19% | 6% | -12.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.2% | 6% | -12.4% |
| 10% | -32.3% | 6% | -20.8% |
| 15% | -38.9% | 6% | -28.4% |
| 20% | -44.9% | 6% | -35.4% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | Jun 23 | $90 | $0 | +0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30? | Apr 29 | $4 | −$3 | -100% |
| Hurricanes vs. Islanders | Apr 15 | $126 | +$148 | +117% |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Apr 01 | $8 | −$1 | -7% |
| UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) | Mar 22 | $206 | −$206 | -100% |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? | Mar 18 | $6 | −$4 | -64% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai? | Mar 18 | $6 | −$3 | -50% |
| Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? | Mar 14 | $197 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Mar 14 | $99 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Hashem Hosseini Bushehri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | Mar 09 | $298 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | Mar 05 | $13 | −$10 | -74% |
| Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Feb 28 | $294 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 24 | $295 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Feb 20 | $296 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Feb 18 | $295 | $0 | -0% |
| Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Feb 16 | $295 | −$1 | -0% |