Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd01c…2f30 sports 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$155 (+5%) realized +$155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% $0
other 12% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +0.9% -8.7% 48% 48% -4.7%
≤30d 33 +0.9% -8.7% 48% 48% -4.7%
≤90d 33 +0.9% -8.7% 48% 48% -4.7%
all 33 +0.9% -8.7% 48% 48% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 48% -4.7%
10% -17.4% 48% -13.9%
15% -25.4% 48% -22.2%
20% -32.7% 48% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$72 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage6d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 40¢ 40¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $51 +$116 +226%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $119 +$95 +79%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $61 +$48 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $61 +$44 +73%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $202 +$137 +67%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $36 +$64 +180%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $51 +$45 +90%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $172 +$102 +60%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $76 −$75 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $67 +$94 +140%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $109 +$172 +158%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $87 −$85 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $76 −$75 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $138 +$150 +109%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 15 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $66 +$61 +93%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$81 +158%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $119 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $51 22h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 57¢ $101 22h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 51¢ $101 22h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 46h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 46h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 46h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $61 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $61 46h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $36 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $61 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $51 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 59¢ $101 3d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $36 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $51 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 52¢ $51 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 62¢ $172 3d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $26 3d
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY XLG Gaming 59¢ $76 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 41¢ $67 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $281 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $109 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $102 4d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $87 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $76 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $288 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 47¢ $138 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.39 · official $200.39 (match) · 51 history records