Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:17:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D0 0xd018…9f95 other 214 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$170 (+7%) realized +$178 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%78W / 106L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$100
14 days+$136
30 days+$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$189
other 44% +$45
politics 4% −$77
world 2% −$8
crypto 2% +$2
weather 1% −$16
tech 0% −$8
finance 0% +$19
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -6.4% -15.3% 26% 26% +2.5%
≤30d 128 -18.0% -25.8% 31% 27% -2.8%
≤90d 183 -4.5% -13.6% 43% 34% -2.0%
all 184 -4.5% -13.6% 42% 34% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 34% -2.0%
10% -21.8% 24% -11.4%
15% -29.4% 20% -20.0%
20% -36.3% 18% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized+$178
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses78 / 106
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions22
Markets (closed)184 / 214
History coverage95d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 23¢ 18¢ $51 $40 −$11 (-22%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $23 $21 −$2 (-9%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 40¢ $29 $20 −$9 (-30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $16 $18 +$1 (+9%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 27¢ 33¢ $14 $17 +$3 (+21%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+19%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+40%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+20%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 12¢ 7¢ $6 $4 −$3 (-42%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will "The Fall-Off - J-Cole" be the top Spotify album for 2026? Yes 50¢ 30¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $68 +$25 +36%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $85 +$16 +18%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 +$16 +388%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $6 +$14 +223%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $9 −$2 -26%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? AND Will England win on 2026 Jun 17 $1 +$8 +783%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$8 +474%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -6%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $136 +$76 +56%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $1 +$14 +1331%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +77%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $29 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 84¢ $85 4h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 14h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 15h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 19h
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $35 19h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 19h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 19h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 19h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 19h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 19h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 27h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 27h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 29h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 29h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 29h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 29h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 29h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.49 · official $267.50 (match) · 547 history records