Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D0 0xd016…18ba crypto 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$51 (+2%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate70%23W / 10L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day104.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$323
sports 8% +$23
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +12.4% +1.7% 70% 55% +1.2%
≤30d 33 +12.4% +1.7% 70% 55% +1.2%
≤90d 33 +12.4% +1.7% 70% 55% +1.2%
all 33 +12.4% +1.7% 70% 55% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.7% 55% +1.2%
10% ← realistic here -8.0% 42% -8.5%
15% -16.9% 27% -17.4%
20% -25.1% 21% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$31 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses23 / 10
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day104.0
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $24 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$12 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $610 +$187 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $511 −$57 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $200 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $304 +$69 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $309 +$122 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$26 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $50 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $128 +$13 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $104 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $80 +$14 +18%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$3 -7%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$29 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $37 +$31 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +81%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $48 +$8 +16%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $6 $0 +8%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 −$10 -51%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $60 +$7 +11%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $26 +$24 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $2 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $344 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $331 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records