Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd015…e3d2 crypto 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%73W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$7
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
other 0% $0
politics 0% −$6
world 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
sports 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +4.6% -5.3% 100% 25% -9.2%
≤90d 24 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 8% -9.4%
all 75 -1.6% -11.0% 97% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 3% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses73 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)75 / 79
History coverage243d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 10? Jun 11 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 5? Jun 08 $106 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont Jun 03 $3 +$1 +20%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 03 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 24? Jun 03 $95 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 23 $96 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? May 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? May 06 $103 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $230 end of April? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 03 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27? Apr 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? Apr 26 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 18? Apr 19 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? Apr 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? Apr 06 $99 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA dip to $152 in March? Apr 02 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 30? Apr 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 27? Mar 29 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 22? Mar 23 $94 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? Mar 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 4? Mar 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 03 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 23? Feb 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 18 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 15? Feb 16 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 1 Feb 12 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 7? Feb 08 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 2? Feb 05 $98 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in January? Feb 02 $3 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? Feb 02 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on February 1 Feb 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on January 30? Jan 31 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 24? Jan 25 $92 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on January 21? Jan 22 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 18? Jan 19 $93 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $94 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $91 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $2 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $7 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $6 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $107 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $102 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $106 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $95 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $96 37d
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Cont BUY Yes 83¢ $3 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 46d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $5 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 49d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $99 63d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $230 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 64d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $102 65d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,700 on April 16? BUY No 100¢ $98 67d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 98¢ $3 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 70d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $100 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $99 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $97 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $98 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $94 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 22? BUY No 100¢ $94 92d
Will NVIDIA dip to $152 in March? BUY No 96¢ $5 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $101 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.59 · official $105.59 (match) · 156 history records