Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:55:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

D0 0xd015…590b other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 240d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$86 (+6%) realized +$86 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate52%12W / 11L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$59per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$24

7 days+$34

14 days+$96

30 days+$96

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-1.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+14.5%	+3.6%	56%	56%	-7.0%
≤30d	19	+12.0%	+1.3%	58%	58%	-3.3%
≤90d	19	+12.0%	+1.3%	58%	58%	-3.3%
all	23	+8.6%	-1.8%	52%	52%	-3.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.8%	52%	-3.8%
10%	-11.2%	48%	-13.0%
15%	-19.8%	43%	-21.4%
20%	-27.6%	30%	-29.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 49% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -4% → late +21% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$34 vs −$29 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.28 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage

Net worth$40

Realized+$86

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses12 / 11

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage240d

Avg bet$59

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	15¢	15¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	19¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 24	$20	+$21	+103%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$51	$0	-0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 24	$51	−$30	-59%
Brazil leading at halftime?	Jun 24	$30	+$24	+79%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$20	+$12	+60%
Spread: England (-2.5)	Jun 23	$31	−$30	-98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 23	$20	+$20	+96%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 23	$20	+$19	+92%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals	Jun 23	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	Jun 23	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 23	$5	+$14	+276%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Jun 22	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$505	+$132	+26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$202	−$200	-99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$151	+$66	+44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$100	+$16	+16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$48	+48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$50	+$24	+47%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5)	Nov 02	$5	−$5	-100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)	Nov 01	$5	+$13	+270%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)	Oct 31	$5	−$5	-100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5)	Oct 28	$10	−$10	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	SELL Brazil	79¢	$41	27m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	60¢	$51	31m
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	21¢	$21	31m
Brazil leading at halftime?	SELL Yes	100¢	$54	55m
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	49¢	$51	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	58¢	$20	1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Brazil	38¢	$20	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	59¢	$30	1h
Brazil leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	55¢	$30	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	83¢	$32	23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	51¢	$20	24h
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	40¢	$31	28h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	100¢	$25	29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	SELL Yes	99¢	$15	29h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	SELL Portugal	88¢	$39	29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	50¢	$20	30h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	45¢	$20	30h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	45¢	$20	30h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$5	31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	31h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	15¢	$21	31h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	SELL Yes	100¢	$19	46h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	26¢	$5	2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$5	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	87¢	$637	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$505	2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$202	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	97¢	$218	3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	67¢	$151	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$116	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.94 · official $39.94 (match) · 43 history records