Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D0 0xd00c…8637 other 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 713d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70,081 (-53%) realized −$70,039 · open −$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate59%29W / 20L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,284per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$832now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$180
14 days+$180
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$69,643
sports 7% −$283
crypto 6% −$201
politics 0% +$91
tech 0% −$70
world 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +153.7% +129.5% 100% 100% +135.0%
≤30d 13 +56.1% +41.3% 62% 62% +55.7%
≤90d 13 +56.1% +41.3% 62% 62% +55.7%
all 49 -5.6% -14.6% 59% 33% -58.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 33% -58.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 31% -62.2%
15% -30.2% 29% -65.9%
20% -37.1% 24% -69.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$992) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -31% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$187 vs −$3,773 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

713d coverage
Net worth$832
Realized−$70,039
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses29 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Open positions53
Markets (closed)49 / 102
History coverage713d
Avg bet$1,284
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 53 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 41¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 42¢ 42¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? No 56¢ 56¢ $38 $38 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 39¢ 38¢ $37 $35 −$2 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 25¢ 24¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? No 39¢ 38¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 38¢ 34¢ $31 $28 −$3 (-10%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? No 27¢ 24¢ $30 $28 −$3 (-8%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 28¢ 28¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 50¢ 52¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 44¢ 44¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? No 55¢ 52¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 46¢ 46¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 43¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 39¢ 36¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? No 24¢ 22¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? No 32¢ 30¢ $20 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 20¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 30¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-3%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 31¢ 28¢ $19 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? No 12¢ 12¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-6%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 51¢ 56¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$20 +103%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +206%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$15 +140%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$19 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$16 +152%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 +$68 +316%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +109%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 01 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? May 20 $7 −$6 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? May 20 $11 −$10 -99%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 02 $7,976 +$24 +0%
Will Breanna Stewart win the 2025 WNBA MVP? Nov 18 $196 +$4 +2%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Nov 18 $342 +$3 +1%
Will the Golden State Valkyries win the 2025 WNBA Championship? Nov 18 $1,382 +$10 +1%
Will the Connecticut Sun win the 2025 WNBA Championship? Aug 26 $2,014 +$11 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in August? Aug 26 $234 −$234 -100%
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10? Aug 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4500 in July? Jul 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Inter Miami CF win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 23 $400 +$6 +2%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 23 $1,131 +$32 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 27 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 27 $21 +$2 +12%
Which conference wins NBA Finals? Jun 27 $828 −$228 -28%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 27 $992 +$232 +23%
Will the Pacers beat the Thunder 4-3? Jun 27 $1,431 +$146 +10%
Will the Eagles win Super Bowl 2025? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Was Trump hacked? Jun 05 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Jun 05 $162 +$118 +72%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $1,821 +$79 +4%
USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Nov 07 $27 −$27 -100%
Colombia wins Copa America 2024? Nov 07 $3 +$2 +47%
Will Morocco win Gold in Men's Football (Soccer)? Nov 07 $91 +$9 +10%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $197 +$126 +64%
Will Harry Kane be Euro 2024 top scorer? Jul 15 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Phil Foden be Euro 2024 top scorer? Jul 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will another player be Euro 2024 top scorer? Jul 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Alvaro Morata be Euro 2024 top scorer? Jul 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Spain win the 2024 Euros? Jul 15 $3,339 −$3,339 -100%
Will the Netherlands win the 2024 Euros? Jul 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cody Gakpo be Euro 2024 top scorer? Jul 15 $70,520 −$70,220 -100%
Will Lamine Yamal be Player of the Tournament for Euro 2024? Jul 15 $1,007 +$591 +59%
Will Jude Bellingham be Euro 2024 top scorer? Jul 15 $31,237 +$2,372 +8%
Spain vs. Germany - Who will advance? Jul 10 $959 −$959 -100%
Will France win the 2024 Euros? Jul 10 $2,212 +$809 +37%
England vs. Switzerland - Who will advance? Jul 07 $1,015 +$650 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 41¢ $10 54m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 55¢ $11 54m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 23¢ $10 55m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 37¢ $10 56m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 25¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 35¢ $11 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 41¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 31¢ $9 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $3 1h
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 3¢ $3 1h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 0¢ $1 1h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 2¢ $2 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 32¢ $10 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 47¢ $11 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $28 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 38¢ $10 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 25¢ $10 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 38¢ $10 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 39¢ $10 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $10 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 39¢ $10 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $10 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $10 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $10 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 54¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $831.93 · official $831.95 (match) · 349 history records