Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D0 0xd00b…4ff6 sports 27 markets active 19h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,148 (-85%) realized −$4,148 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$180per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$4,148
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 50% -15.7%
≤30d 18 +4.2% -5.7% 56% 56% -9.4%
≤90d 24 +10.7% +0.2% 58% 58% -12.9%
all 26 +2.2% -7.5% 54% 54% -88.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 54% -88.3%
10% -16.4% 54% -89.4%
15% -24.5% 50% -90.4%
20% -31.9% 42% -91.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$370 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$4,148
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage139d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $5 +$4 +75%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 16 $9 −$8 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $4 +$9 +226%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 +$1 +27%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $4 +$5 +129%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 07 $10 +$4 +40%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $9 +$4 +44%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 May 31 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 28 $4 +$3 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $4 +$3 +75%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 24 $2 +$3 +119%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 21 $5 +$4 +76%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Mar 26 $274 −$274 -100%
Lakers vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5 Mar 26 $145 +$129 +89%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) Mar 25 $71 +$74 +104%
Spread: Magic (-13.5) Mar 24 $37 +$34 +92%
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5 Mar 23 $19 +$18 +96%
Spread: Hornets (-1.5) Jan 28 $501 −$501 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Jan 28 $3,624 −$3,624 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 18h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 63¢ $9 44h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $2 3d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $4 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 4d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 30¢ $4 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $5 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 9d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 71¢ $10 12d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 69¢ $9 15d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $8 17d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 24¢ $2 19d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 21d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $3 21d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $4 22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 57¢ $1 24d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 57¢ $3 24d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $2 26d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 27d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 34¢ $0 27d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $3 29d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 32d
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 33d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $88 35d
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) BUY Pelicans 50¢ $274 83d
Lakers vs. Pacers: O/U 237.5 BUY Over 53¢ $145 84d
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) BUY Suns 49¢ $71 85d
Spread: Magic (-13.5) BUY Pacers 52¢ $37 86d
Wizards vs. Knicks: O/U 227.5 BUY Over 51¢ $19 87d
Spread: Hornets (-1.5) BUY Grizzlies 48¢ $501 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.96 · official $87.96 (match) · 80 history records