Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd00b…9aa0 politics 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate13%12W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,479per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,021now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$16
14 days−$34
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$84
other 41% −$9
tech 3% −$5
world 3% −$4
economics 2% −$4
sports 2% +$61
crypto 1% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +7.9% -2.4% 9% 6% -9.4%
≤90d 92 +2.9% -6.9% 13% 11% -9.6%
all 92 +2.9% -6.9% 13% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 11% -9.6%
10% -15.8% 11% -18.2%
15% -24.0% 10% -26.1%
20% -31.4% 10% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,750) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$5 · ×5.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$1,021
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses12 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)92 / 94
History coverage89d
Avg bet$1,479
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $618 $618 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $404 $404 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 24 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $4,906 −$6 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $3,883 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $744 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $252 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $1,467 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,859 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,405 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,184 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,579 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,301 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $2,789 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,587 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,449 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,565 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,379 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 08 $2,013 −$2 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $1,681 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,950 −$5 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,338 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,694 −$2 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $52 +$76 +146%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $3,088 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $50 +$67 +134%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,714 −$4 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $798 +$4 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $6,416 −$7 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,193 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,746 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,083 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,549 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,364 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $1,328 −$2 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $85 +$55 +65%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,231 −$2 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $2,344 −$3 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,688 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,022 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,126 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,373 −$2 -0%
Will Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw? May 21 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,608 −$3 -0%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 20 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $618 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $797 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $798 3h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $556 4h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $557 7h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $631 23h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $632 27h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $743 27h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $744 29h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $629 2d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $630 2d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $251 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $252 5d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,465 6d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,467 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,285 7d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,287 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,403 7d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,405 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,218 8d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,220 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,182 8d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,184 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,577 9d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,579 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,299 10d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,301 10d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $404 11d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,464 13d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,466 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,021.37 · official $1,021.37 (match) · 265 history records