Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:55:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D0 0xd00a…c12d weather 1008 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$186 (-2%) realized −$230 · open +$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%227W / 757L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day85.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days+$234
14 days+$214
30 days−$573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$1,382
weather 15% +$139
other 1% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -21.6% -29.1% 7% 7% -8.8%
≤30d 841 -20.1% -27.7% 19% 19% -27.4%
≤90d 984 -18.5% -26.3% 23% 23% -27.7%
all 984 -18.5% -26.3% 23% 23% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.3% 23% -27.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 22% -34.6%
15% -39.8% 21% -40.9%
20% -45.7% 19% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$230
Unrealized+$44
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses227 / 757
Open positions24
Markets (closed)984 / 1008
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day85.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 984 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 83¢ $2 $67 +$64 (+2677%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 14¢ $2 $11 +$9 (+367%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+98%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-77%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+50%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 16? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or higher on June 16? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $9 −$4 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $0 $0 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $7 −$3 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$21 +3221%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$73 +3034%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$53 +2222%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +637%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 35m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 35m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 37m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 44m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 44m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 50m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 51m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 53m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 59m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 SELL Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.94 · official $91.94 (match) · 3500 history records