Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D0 0xd004…d54a other 196 markets active 2h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,748 (+20%) realized +$4,911 · open −$163
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%83W / 104L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$137est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$843
7 days+$1,737
14 days+$2,924
30 days+$4,100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$1,479
sports 42% +$2,739
world 2% −$147
politics 1% +$17
economics 0% +$3
culture 0% +$2
crypto 0% +$13
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -11.5% -19.9% 41% 41% +6.7%
≤30d 60 -10.8% -19.3% 40% 40% +17.5%
≤90d 108 -12.1% -20.5% 38% 38% +13.8%
all 187 -10.1% -18.6% 44% 43% +8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 43% +8.9%
10% -26.4% 40% -1.5%
15% -33.5% 36% -11.0%
20% -40.1% 28% -19.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$79 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$1,718
Realized+$4,911
Unrealized−$163
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses83 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$137
Open positions9
Markets (closed)187 / 196
History coverage235d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 44¢ $500 $506 +$6 (+1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 52¢ $500 $505 +$5 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 34¢ $500 $328 −$172 (-34%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No 54¢ 55¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes 53¢ 53¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$155 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $507 −$100 -20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $509 +$682 +134%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$142 +140%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $508 +$492 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $204 +$284 +140%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $609 −$600 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $604 −$600 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $508 +$628 +124%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $305 +$426 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $304 +$284 +93%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $305 +$377 +124%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $305 +$426 +140%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $508 +$206 +41%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$136 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $507 +$436 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $39 +$97 +250%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Curaçao to score first vs. Germany? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$222 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $441 −$430 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $302 −$300 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $659 +$750 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $183 −$180 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$48 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $1,506 +$1,343 +89%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $510 −$56 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $199 +$410 +206%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $206 +$355 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $507 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 26¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $508 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $102 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $507 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $101 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $203 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $386 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $406 5h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $509 24h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 24h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 24h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $609 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 24h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $508 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $604 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $204 30h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 30h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $508 46h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 47h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $508 47h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $305 47h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $304 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $305 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,718.38 · official $1,718.38 (match) · 362 history records