Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D0 0xd003…0113 other 151 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$623 (+21%) realized +$560 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%35W / 100L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$240
7 days+$442
14 days+$443
30 days+$614
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$276
sports 33% +$419
crypto 3% −$12
politics 1% −$30
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +46.4% +32.4% 39% 39% +38.4%
≤30d 60 +54.7% +40.0% 33% 33% +29.1%
≤90d 122 +25.9% +13.9% 24% 24% +6.7%
all 135 +25.2% +13.3% 26% 26% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.3% 26% +7.3%
10% +2.5% 26% -2.9%
15% -7.4% 25% -12.3%
20% -16.5% 24% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$12 · ×4.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized+$560
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses35 / 100
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions12
Markets (closed)135 / 151
History coverage136d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $20 $123 +$103 (+515%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 18¢ 15¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-14%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 8¢ $30 $9 −$21 (-69%)
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $43 +$47 +109%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$60 +118%
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$12 +118%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $102 +$102 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $56 −$55 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $41 +$41 +101%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $68 +$135 +198%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $66 +$57 +86%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 +$132 +1288%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$29 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$38 +250%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $10 +$61 +596%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$70 +172%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -13%
Will Brooks Koepka finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 10 $112 −$110 -98%
Will Justin Rose finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournam Jun 08 $63 +$111 +176%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 01 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? Jun 01 $5 +$43 +834%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $64 +$56 +89%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $66 −$61 -92%
Will Michael Brennan win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Charles Schwab Challenge? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Sung-Jae Im finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nel May 25 $51 +$85 +166%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 25 $2 +$88 +4272%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Pr May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 20 $5 +$17 +325%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 May 20 $15 +$28 +180%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 1h
Will Wyndham Clark finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 2h
Will Russell Henley win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 2h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 39¢ $51 4h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 100¢ $111 5h
Saša Kalajdžić: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $51 8h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 8h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $22 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $10 10h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 10h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $204 14h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $43 26h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $56 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 38h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $82 38h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 41h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $41 41h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 41h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $203 41h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $68 42h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 19¢ $26 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $26 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.49 · official $362.49 · 290 history records