Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D0 0xd002…d2ec other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$39 (+18%) realized +$37 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown6%max

Avg bet$31per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)-2.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+7.9%	-2.4%	75%	75%	+28.8%
≤30d	4	+7.9%	-2.4%	75%	75%	+28.8%
≤90d	4	+7.9%	-2.4%	75%	75%	+28.8%
all	4	+7.9%	-2.4%	75%	75%	+28.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-2.4%	75%	+28.8%
10%	-11.7%	75%	+16.5%
15%	-20.2%	50%	+5.2%
20%	-28.1%	25%	-5.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +42% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +8% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$2 · ×6.32 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×18.97 per $1 lost it wins $18.97

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$131

Realized+$37

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions3

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage6d

Avg bet$31

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown6%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$57	$56	−$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$45	$45	−$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$27	$30	+$2 (+9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$38	+$19	+50%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	Jun 22	$2	−$2	-96%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$25	+$13	+52%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$19	+$6	+30%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$58	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	100¢	$57	10h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?	BUY No	2¢	$2	21h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$2	21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	66¢	$38	26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	65¢	$25	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	93¢	$25	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$9	5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$10	5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$30	5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$46	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.72 · official $130.72 (match) · 18 history records