Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:53:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcfff…d338 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,667 (-25%) realized −$2,753 · open +$86
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%12W / 12L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$403per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,186now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,810
7 days−$2,856
14 days−$2,694
30 days−$2,623
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$3,088
world 19% +$153
sports 10% +$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +5.2% -4.9% 38% 31% -40.4%
≤30d 22 +11.6% +1.0% 55% 45% -28.2%
≤90d 24 +2.3% -7.5% 50% 42% -29.9%
all 24 +2.3% -7.5% 50% 42% -29.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 42% -29.9%
10% -16.3% 38% -36.6%
15% -24.4% 38% -42.7%
20% -31.8% 25% -48.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$503) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$60 vs −$295 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1,186
Realized−$2,753
Unrealized+$86
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses12 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)24 / 26
History coverage35d
Avg bet$403
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 81¢ $1,000 $1,087 +$87 (+9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $2,012 −$1,820 -90%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2,005 +$140 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +474%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,006 −$420 -42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $722 −$720 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $503 +$107 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$19 -19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $42 +$37 +89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$18 +36%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $81 +$93 +114%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $97 +$40 +42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 +$15 +97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $84 −$82 -97%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,000 +$153 +8%
Will Australia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes $27 9h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 11¢ $51 10h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 16¢ $97 10h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $1,654 18h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $129 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $20 18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 28¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 57¢ $20 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $102 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 39¢ $586 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,006 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $722 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $101 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $503 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 52¢ $51 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 53¢ $82 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $29 6d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $12 6d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $48 6d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $245 6d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $29 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 62¢ $30 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 73¢ $50 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $21 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $50 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $81 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,185.75 · official $1,185.89 (match) · 53 history records