Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfff…673d
weather · 1017 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$21,431 -29%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$14,573 · open −$6,506
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$300
Realized−$14,573
Unrealized−$6,506
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses14 / 109
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions487
Markets (closed)123 / 1017
History coverage2d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1677.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 487 History 123 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14,573
7 days−$14,573
14 days−$14,573
30 days−$14,573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Partido Liberal (PL) win the most seats in the next Brazilian Senate election? Yes 3¢ 72¢ $1 $22 +$21 (+2708%)
Will Dylan Hess win the 2026 PLL Hard Hat Award (SSDM)? Yes 3¢ 49¢ $1 $15 +$14 (+1664%)
Will Ryan Terefenko win the 2026 PLL Hard Hat Award (SSDM)? Yes 3¢ 48¢ $1 $15 +$14 (+1646%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? No 98¢ 96¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $100 and $150? No 94¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? No 74¢ 86¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+17%)
Will Kayda Bosse win Love Island USA Season 8? Yes 5¢ 24¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+439%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting? Yes 33¢ 88¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+164%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $129 $3 −$126 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +1027%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 6? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1000%
Will Filippo Boscagli win the 2026 Lecco mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1102%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 10? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1001%
Will Woo Sang-ho win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election Jun 12 $0 $0 +501%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 6? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1000%
Will Marcello Comanducci win the 2026 Arezzo mayoral election? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 10? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1005%
Will "Dane Laffrey" win Best Scenic Design of a Musical at the 2026 To Jun 12 $0 $0 +1102%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $627 −$627 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 98°F or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$29 -78%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $477 −$477 -100%
Will Monte win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $481 −$481 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $237 −$237 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -87%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $167 −$167 -100%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $369 −$369 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $507 −$507 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $353 −$353 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $84 −$79 -94%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Jun 12 $75 −$75 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 Jun 12 $182 −$182 -100%
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 −$18 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $414 −$414 -100%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 12 $108 −$108 -100%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $175 −$173 -99%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $11 −$6 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $57 −$56 -99%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $287 −$287 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 Jun 12 $26 −$23 -91%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $306 −$306 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 34% −$5,140
other 27% −$11,428
politics 13% −$3,090
tech 10% −$232
sports 5% −$51
finance 5% −$626
world 3% −$75
culture 2% −$378
economics 1% −$59
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 74¢ $7 0m
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $20 1m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 99¢ $5 1m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 99¢ $20 2m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 21¢ $6 5m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 21¢ $9 5m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY No 96¢ $7 5m
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 BUY No 100¢ $75 5m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 99¢ $30 5m
Will Carl Brunner win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary el BUY No 100¢ $30 6m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 13¢ $4 6m
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 10m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 78¢ $23 10m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less BUY No 99¢ $30 10m
Will Raphinha record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 3¢ $0 11m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $32 11m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 11m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 11m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $20 11m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $19 11m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $32 11m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 11m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $28 11m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $32 11m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $32 11m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY No 99¢ $74 12m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju BUY No 100¢ $30 13m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 +19.5% +8.1% 11% 11% -98.7%
≤30d 123 +19.5% +8.1% 11% 11% -98.7%
≤90d 123 +19.5% +8.1% 11% 11% -98.7%
all 123 +19.5% +8.1% 11% 11% -98.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1677.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.1% 11% -98.7%
10% ← realistic here -2.2% 10% -98.9%
15% -11.7% 10% -99.0%
20% -20.3% 10% -99.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.36 · official $292.57 · 3500 history records