Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:10:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcffc…172b crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$255 (+0%) realized +$258 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate85%74W / 13L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$1,316per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$84
14 days+$83
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$109
other 6% +$4
politics 3% +$5
sports 2% −$40
weather 2% +$81
world 1% +$4
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +9.6% -0.9% 100% 25% -2.6%
≤30d 8 -4.7% -13.8% 50% 12% -3.1%
≤90d 18 -2.2% -11.5% 67% 6% -9.0%
all 87 -0.4% -9.9% 85% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$1,351) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.49 per $1 lost it wins $4.49
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$258
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses74 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage259d
Avg bet$1,316
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $65 $62 −$3 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 22 $446 +$12 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 22 $192 +$45 +24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 22 $149 +$10 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? Jun 22 $309 +$17 +6%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 10 $1 $0 -68%
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $37 $0 -1%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 08 $35 $0 -0%
Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 08 $1 $0 -7%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $1,120 +$8 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10? May 11 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 May 4-10? May 11 $1,073 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 7? May 07 $1,117 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 5? May 05 $1,104 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $1,109 +$1 +0%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5 Apr 30 $1,094 −$39 -4%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1,128 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 02 $306 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in February? Mar 01 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Feb 28 $4,359 +$4 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading Feb 28 $702 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of Feb 28 $1,227 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading Feb 28 $2,425 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on February 26? Feb 27 $1,938 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 26? Feb 27 $2,412 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $4,346 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 February 16-22? Feb 23 $4,341 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $4,337 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $4,332 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on February 19? Feb 20 $4,328 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 17? Feb 18 $4,324 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 16? Feb 17 $4,320 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $364 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 15? Feb 16 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $3,403 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 14? Feb 15 $4,311 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 13? Feb 14 $1,466 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on February 13? Feb 14 $1,674 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on January 2? Jan 03 $1,337 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $1,333 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 30? Dec 31 $1,331 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on December 29? Dec 30 $1,330 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 December 22-28? Dec 29 $1,329 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on December 2 Dec 29 $1,326 +$3 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of December 22 above $205? Dec 27 $1,325 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on December 25? Dec 26 $1,323 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on December 23? Dec 24 $1,322 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 22? Dec 23 $1,321 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 8m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 23m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? SELL Yes 58¢ $74 32m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 38m
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? SELL Yes 60¢ $65 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? SELL Yes 59¢ $266 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY Yes 56¢ $23 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? SELL Yes 53¢ $129 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY Yes 55¢ $96 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? SELL Yes 53¢ $290 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY Yes 52¢ $649 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun SELL Yes 51¢ $153 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 34¢ $159 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? SELL Yes 52¢ $185 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? SELL Yes 57¢ $134 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 51¢ $421 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL Yes 37¢ $103 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL Yes 42¢ $152 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 37¢ $31 3h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $107 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL Yes 37¢ $71 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.31 · official $62.31 (match) · 236 history records