Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CF 0xcffb…7590 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$51 (+40%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +242% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +210% what you keep after slip
Net edge+210%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$46
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$35
sports 40% +$27
world 8% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+209.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +50.7% +36.4% 71% 57% +38.4%
≤30d 10 +242.5% +209.9% 80% 70% +36.9%
≤90d 10 +242.5% +209.9% 80% 70% +36.9%
all 10 +242.5% +209.9% 80% 70% +36.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +209.9% 70% +36.9%
10% +180.3% 60% +23.8%
15% +153.2% 60% +11.9%
20% +128.4% 50% +0.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +243% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.19 per $1 lost it wins $4.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage8d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 +$16 +102%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$8 +38%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 +$13 +126%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 +$28 +278%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$11 +54%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 3d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $23 5d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 5d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 6d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 6d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 7d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 7d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records