Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
CF 0xcff8…bbab crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,850 (-7%) realized −$1,850 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate85%23W / 4L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,005per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,879
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +1.0% -8.6% 88% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 18 -4.5% -13.6% 89% 0% -11.6%
all 27 -8.0% -16.8% 85% 0% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 0% -15.8%
10% -24.8% 0% -23.9%
15% -32.0% 0% -31.2%
20% -38.7% 0% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,550) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$543 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,850
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses23 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage94d
Avg bet$1,005
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $213 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $1,672 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 01 $1,244 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 01 $28 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 25 $529 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 25 $1,686 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 25 $1,204 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 01 $557 −$557 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 01 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 01 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 01 $762 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 30 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 30 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 30 $665 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 30 $1,002 +$21 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 30 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 30 $1,000 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 20 $31 −$15 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 20 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 20 $1,598 −$1,598 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Mar 20 $1,581 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 20 $1,566 +$16 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 20 $1,543 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 20 $1,474 +$76 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 19 $1,550 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Mar 19 $565 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,633 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,635 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $213 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,672 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,244 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $28 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $529 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,686 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,204 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $557 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,000 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,000 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $762 50d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,001 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $665 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,002 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,001 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,000 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $17 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $17 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1,598 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,581 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,566 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,543 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,551 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,550 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1,474 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records