Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:38:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
CF 0xcff7…57c7 crypto 199 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-3%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate51%101W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$97
7 days−$97
14 days−$97
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$117
sports 13% −$50
other 1% −$1
world 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -32.1% -38.6% 33% 33% -49.4%
≤30d 6 -32.1% -38.6% 33% 33% -49.4%
≤90d 6 -32.1% -38.6% 33% 33% -49.4%
all 199 -6.1% -15.1% 51% 46% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 46% -15.1%
10% -23.2% 37% -23.2%
15% -30.6% 27% -30.6%
20% -37.4% 18% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses101 / 98
Open positions0
Markets (closed)199 / 199
History coverage238d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 199 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$20 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Feb 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Feb 19 $18 −$5 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 10PM ET Dec 25 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 9PM ET Dec 25 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 20, 12AM ET Dec 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 7AM ET Dec 18 $212 +$54 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 6AM ET Dec 18 $20 −$16 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 5AM ET Dec 18 $20 +$22 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 7PM ET Dec 18 $9 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 5PM ET Dec 17 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Dec 17 $20 −$18 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 12AM ET Dec 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 15, 9PM ET Dec 16 $69 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11PM ET Dec 08 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Dec 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 9PM ET Dec 08 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 8PM ET Dec 08 $20 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 11AM ET Dec 07 $20 +$40 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 7, 9AM ET Dec 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Hawks vs. Wizards Dec 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 10AM ET Dec 05 $30 +$10 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 05 $18 +$12 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Dec 05 $20 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 5, 6AM ET Dec 05 $20 +$31 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 10AM ET Dec 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 04 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 4, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 04 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Dec 04 $20 +$24 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Dec 03 $29 −$25 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Dec 02 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Dec 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Dec 02 $20 +$13 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 8PM ET Dec 02 $20 +$12 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Dec 02 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Nov 30 $40 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 2AM ET Nov 29 $20 −$15 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 10PM ET Nov 29 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 8PM ET Nov 29 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 8AM ET Nov 28 $20 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Nov 28 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 28, 2AM ET Nov 28 $20 +$25 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 75¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $14 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 129d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 499 history records