Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:26:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CF 0xcff6…521e sports 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$766 (+9%) realized +$742 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate65%26W / 14L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$353
7 days+$615
14 days+$651
30 days+$1,176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$1,050
world 4% −$350
other 1% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +6.9% -3.3% 67% 62% +1.0%
≤30d 36 +16.4% +5.3% 69% 61% +4.6%
≤90d 40 +8.4% -1.9% 65% 58% -1.8%
all 40 +8.4% -1.9% 65% 58% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 58% -1.8%
10% -11.3% 50% -11.2%
15% -19.9% 38% -19.8%
20% -27.7% 18% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$116 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$742
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses26 / 14
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage33d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 48¢ 70¢ $50 $74 +$24 (+47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 +$89 +172%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$24 +48%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$44 +43%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $153 +$3 +2%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 +$80 +78%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $204 +$58 +29%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$53 -52%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $22 −$22 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $79 −$79 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $460 +$150 +33%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $306 −$166 -54%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$12 -12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $205 +$162 +79%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $204 +$74 +36%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $153 −$150 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $122 +$45 +37%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $407 +$117 +29%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $406 −$141 -35%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$17 +16%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $305 +$97 +32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $367 +$89 +24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $200 −$199 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $297 +$58 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $804 +$329 +41%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $306 +$108 +36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $103 +$72 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $306 +$155 +51%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 31 $318 +$21 +7%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $358 +$162 +45%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 31 $306 +$19 +6%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 30 $130 +$77 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $62 +$28 +45%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $54 +$218 +404%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 20 $70 −$46 -65%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien May 20 $103 −$100 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $154 +$19 +12%
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 19 $353 −$350 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 10m
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $26 58m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 58m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $75 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $146 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $102 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 67¢ $124 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 67¢ $33 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 63¢ $102 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 96¢ $183 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 96¢ $262 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $102 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $102 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $102 13h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 32¢ $49 23h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $22 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $102 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $23 24h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 44¢ $26 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $475 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $12 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 24¢ $12 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $29 26h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $24 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.57 · official $73.57 (match) · 185 history records