Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcff5…070a politics 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$461per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$11
other 18% −$4
sports 10% −$2
tech 8% −$1
crypto 8% −$1
economics 8% −$2
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 29 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,008) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage86d
Avg bet$461
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 18 $56 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,050 −$2 -0%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,180 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro Jun 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,061 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20? May 21 $48 $0 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 20 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 20 $972 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $998 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kyo-heung win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? May 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $992 −$3 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 18 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? May 18 $946 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $98 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Mar 29 $23 $0 -0%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $49 $0 -0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 24 $54 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of March? Mar 24 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,145 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,125 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $11 1h
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $1,152 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $18 1h
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $1,131 1h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 2h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $810 2h
Will Memphis Grizzlies win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $22 2h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $238 2h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,050 2h
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 17h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,178 17h
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 17h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 18h
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 18h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro SELL No 100¢ $17 18h
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 18h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 18h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $766 18h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first ro BUY No 100¢ $17 19h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 19h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $293 19h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,061 19h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $77 26d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 26d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $29 26d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records