Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CF 0xcff1…f8de crypto 1180 markets active 0h ago coverage 110d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,978 (-8%) realized −$3,975 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%392W / 780L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 110d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$7,200
sports 13% −$70
other 3% −$228
world 1% −$12
tech 0% −$11
politics 0% +$11
weather 0% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -8.7% -17.4% 34% 32% -27.6%
≤30d 320 -27.1% -34.0% 28% 25% -32.2%
≤90d 817 -30.4% -37.1% 29% 26% -30.2%
all 1172 -22.1% -29.5% 33% 30% -27.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.5% 30% -27.8%
10% ← realistic here -36.3% 28% -34.7%
15% -42.4% 24% -41.0%
20% -48.1% 20% -46.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$22 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$3,975
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses392 / 780
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1172 / 1180
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.60 by December 31, 2026? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-3%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 486 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$11 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $107 −$23 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $55 −$36 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $83 −$20 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $119 +$34 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$24 -96%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $37 −$35 -94%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $198 −$26 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$29 -95%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $100 +$33 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$62 +236%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $131 −$29 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $33 −$31 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $94 −$90 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $120 −$25 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $73 −$70 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $172 +$98 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $125 −$34 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $73 +$77 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $73 +$38 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $193 −$14 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $187 −$14 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $83 −$80 -96%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 +$110 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $516 −$253 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $366 −$355 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $903 +$124 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -94%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $30 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $54 −$52 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $156 −$75 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $220 +$51 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $126 +$40 +32%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $141 +$127 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $162 −$60 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $167 −$60 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $231 +$64 +28%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $62 +$35 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $19 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $19 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $14 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $14 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $28 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $14 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $44 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $25 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $20 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $19 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $39 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.57 · official $156.57 · 3500 history records