Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfef…4dfe
sports · 267 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$102 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$78 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$186
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses131 / 124
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions12
Markets (closed)255 / 267
History coverage61d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 12 History 255 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$55
14 days−$204
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 94¢ 88¢ $94 $88 −$7 (-7%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 23¢ 36¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+57%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 76¢ 97¢ $15 $20 +$4 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 62¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+61%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 62¢ 82¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+31%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 22¢ 4¢ $35 $6 −$29 (-83%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez Alvarez 40¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 38¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Missed 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) PARIVISION 69¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 41¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage RUSTEC 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Global Esports 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 70¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage INOX Division 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 57¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner B8 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 +$1 +34%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $7 +$3 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $6 −$4 -73%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 +$3 +49%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7 +$3 +52%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$4 +88%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $17 +$4 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $12 −$10 -83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $8 +$3 +34%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $5 −$1 -18%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 10 $9 −$3 -28%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 10 $5 +$8 +152%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $113 −$93 -82%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Cattolica: Gonzalo Bueno vs Francesco Forti Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group St Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$4 +79%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $10 +$5 +52%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $722 +$130 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 45% +$62
sports 44% −$94
other 7% −$38
crypto 3% −$25
tech 1% +$4
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 62¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 74¢ $4 5h
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) BUY PARIVISION 69¢ $7 16h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Monte 50¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 57¢ $6 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 30¢ $3 17h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 74¢ $8 17h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $4 21h
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? BUY Missed 23¢ $2 21h
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 67¢ $7 29h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $7 29h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 15¢ $1 30h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 91¢ $9 30h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $10 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 41¢ $4 40h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $7 40h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $5 40h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $6 40h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 40h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 42h
World Cup Goals H2H: Haaland vs. Alvarez BUY Alvarez 40¢ $4 42h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 10¢ $5 44h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 94¢ $10 47h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 49¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 17¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 82¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY RUSTEC 38¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -28.8% -35.6% 43% 42% -6.4%
≤30d 249 -17.3% -25.2% 51% 49% -11.7%
≤90d 255 -17.5% -25.3% 51% 48% -12.3%
all 255 -17.5% -25.3% 51% 48% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 48% -12.3%
10% -32.5% 38% -20.7%
15% -39.0% 29% -28.3%
20% -45.0% 21% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $186.39 · official $186.39 (match) · 554 history records