Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfea…0a75 crypto 1079 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$645 (-16%) realized −$643 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%422W / 656L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day47.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$51
14 days−$90
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$501
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -11.1% -19.6% 39% 34% -26.3%
≤30d 287 -10.9% -19.4% 48% 41% -22.6%
≤90d 1078 -17.8% -25.6% 39% 35% -21.0%
all 1078 -17.8% -25.6% 39% 35% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.6% 35% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.7% 29% -28.6%
15% -39.2% 21% -35.5%
20% -45.2% 15% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$643
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses422 / 656
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1078 / 1079
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1078 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$7 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$5 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$9 +831%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 3500 history records