Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfe7…97fc politics 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%5W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$2
sports 24% −$1
other 10% −$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
world 3% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 67% 0% -9.4%
all 39 -7.6% -16.4% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -24.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -31.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses5 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage231d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $91 $0 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 22 $91 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 25 $91 $0 -0%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 08 $89 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 29 $91 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 26 $88 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 22 $1 $0 -65%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $6 −$1 -11%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $88 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $88 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 11 $93 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 08 $91 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 07 $1 $0 -50%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 07 $96 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 06 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 05 $182 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 31 $90 $0 +0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 27 $93 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 25 $94 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $95 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $92 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $186 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $93 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 05 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 03 $93 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $93 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 24 $94 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 20 $94 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 14 $190 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $1 $0 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $88 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $91 44h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 13d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 14d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 26d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $91 109d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $90 119d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $91 121d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $91 127d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 145d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $91 148d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $91 149d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 150d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 152d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $88 153d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $88 155d
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? SELL No 0¢ $0 155d
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? BUY No 0¢ $1 156d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 156d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $88 156d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $88 156d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 156d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 157d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 157d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $90 161d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $91 161d
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $91 163d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 164d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 165d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $93 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.87 · official $87.87 (match) · 169 history records