Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CF 0xcfe7…b8ab other 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+0%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 94L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$28
politics 27% −$13
economics 5% −$2
sports 2% +$59
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 105 +7.4% -2.9% 11% 10% -9.5%
all 106 +7.3% -2.9% 11% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 9% -9.5%
10% -12.2% 8% -18.2%
15% -20.7% 8% -26.1%
20% -28.5% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$630) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage91d
Avg bet$399
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $154 $154 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $69 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $63 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $52 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $412 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $364 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $83 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in May? Jun 02 $162 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $80 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $387 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $62 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $380 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 18 $352 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $361 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 16 $363 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $357 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $366 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 05 $334 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $1,334 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $372 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $369 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $355 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $336 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 25 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $349 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $368 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $363 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $374 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $347 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $353 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $69 1h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $69 4h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 21h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 24h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $154 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $63 4d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $46 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $46 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $56 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 11d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 13d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 13d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 14d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $81 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $81 14d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $80 16d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 16d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $47 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $47 18d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $62 18d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $83 21d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $71 24d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $76 24d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $76 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $153.87 · official $153.87 (match) · 344 history records