Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
CF 0xcfe6…6049 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$108 (+1%) realized +$74 · open +$34
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$1,019now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$139
sports 41% +$800
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +38.2% +25.1% 26% 26% +12.2%
≤30d 19 +38.2% +25.1% 26% 26% +12.2%
≤90d 19 +38.2% +25.1% 26% 26% +12.2%
all 19 +38.2% +25.1% 26% 26% +12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +25.1% 26% +12.2%
10% +13.1% 26% +1.5%
15% +2.2% 26% -8.3%
20% -7.8% 26% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +92% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$746 vs −$202 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,019
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions5
Markets (closed)19 / 37
History coverage3d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $550 $590 +$40 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 24 $97 −$97 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Jun 24 $103 −$103 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $128 −$128 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $113 −$113 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Fra Jun 24 $241 +$952 +396%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $257 −$250 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $154 −$150 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $212 +$639 +302%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $73 −$71 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $645 −$636 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $154 −$150 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $129 −$125 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $555 −$555 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $208 +$609 +292%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $103 +$611 +596%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 21 $170 +$917 +541%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $87 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $129 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $129 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $113 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals AND Will Bosnia BUY $139 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Switzer BUY $195 4h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes $113 13h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 12¢ $257 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 16¢ $128 15h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY 16¢ $241 15h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Mor BUY 17¢ $256 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $154 16h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals SELL Yes 42¢ $850 18h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $73 21h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) AND Spread: England (-2.5) BUY 35¢ $367 21h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 1+ goals AND Will Brazil w BUY 25¢ $253 21h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $212 21h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $645 39h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes $103 39h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY 24¢ $256 40h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $247 41h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $97 44h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 44h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 AND Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND Fra BUY 20¢ $241 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06- BUY $129 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $129 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 2d
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY $154 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 AND Jordan BUY $154 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,019.19 · official $2,204.18 · 57 history records