Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CF 0xcfe4…3b6b crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%26W / 2L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$1
world 41% $0
other 13% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 21 +0.2% -9.3% 90% 0% -9.3%
all 28 +0.2% -9.3% 93% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2088542973947.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×54302117322647.5 per $1 lost it wins $54302117322647.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses26 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage102d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 18 $136 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $132 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 24 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 10? Apr 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 9? Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 3? Apr 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 1? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 31? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 27? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 25? Mar 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 26? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on March 23? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 19? Mar 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on March 20? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 18? Mar 21 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 14? Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 11? Mar 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 16? Mar 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 13? Mar 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? Mar 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 10? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $60 37m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $76 37m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $136 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $117 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $132 17d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $43 55d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $43 65d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $11 69d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $12 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $12 71d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $11 72d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $13 78d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $15 79d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 80d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $22 82d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $12 83d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $39 84d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 84d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $64,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $11 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $11 87d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $11 89d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $13 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $12 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $13 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records