Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:04:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfe4…e7f5
sports · 297 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$57 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses132 / 161
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)293 / 297
History coverage62d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 2 History 293 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$50
14 days−$126
30 days−$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? Yes 63¢ 35¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? No 50¢ 8¢ $7 $1 −$6 (-83%)
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Under 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C or higher on May 5? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 3 - 0 Real Oviedo? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 23? Yes 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Tyrese Maxey: Points O/U 24.5 Yes 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorer Yes 32¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5 Yes 55¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 29? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 22.5 No 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 5? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 1? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$8 +312%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $11 +$5 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$6 +38%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$17 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $5 +$5 +98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $38 −$37 -98%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 08 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 7? Jun 07 $10 −$2 -19%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $5 +$4 +81%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $21 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $14 +$15 +106%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 06 $23 −$23 -99%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $11 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $20 −$10 -47%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $11 +$7 +65%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$1 -18%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $10 −$2 -22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $10 +$13 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $15 −$8 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 01 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$1 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $16 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5 May 31 $10 +$9 +93%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 May 31 $5 −$3 -52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $33 −$32 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 44% +$2
other 24% −$56
weather 23% +$114
crypto 7% −$15
tech 1% −$38
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 50¢ $7 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $11 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 22¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $15 10h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 68¢ $11 11h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $20 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $15 15h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 8¢ $5 32h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 63¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 42¢ $7 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 68¢ $37 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 31¢ $10 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 43¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4d
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 85¢ $9 4d
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? SELL Yes 73¢ $19 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? SELL Yes 34¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 1¢ $1 5d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 SELL Yes 46¢ $8 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $38 5d
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 BUY Yes 59¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $3 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 43¢ $10 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 44¢ $6 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -16.1% -24.1% 35% 26% -30.7%
≤30d 122 -9.8% -18.4% 43% 39% -16.0%
≤90d 293 -4.6% -13.7% 45% 43% -9.0%
all 293 -4.6% -13.7% 45% 43% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 43% -9.0%
10% -21.9% 42% -17.7%
15% -29.5% 38% -25.7%
20% -36.4% 31% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.70 · official $6.70 (match) · 555 history records