Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:33:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfe2…b213 politics 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 132L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$5
politics 24% −$2
other 22% −$2
crypto 9% −$1
culture 8% −$2
economics 4% +$2
world 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 146 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 132
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage165d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 97¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $36 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $157 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $123 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $48 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $61 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $147 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 16 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $95 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $103 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $97 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will Finland win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Ol Feb 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 14 $184 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $50 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $60 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 09 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 09 $95 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 09 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $43 1h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 92¢ $36 13d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 92¢ $36 13d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $39 20d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $39 21d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $37 34d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $38 34d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $48 41d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $48 42d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $47 127d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $47 127d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 127d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 127d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $40 127d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $40 127d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 95¢ $43 127d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 95¢ $43 127d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $45 127d
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 93¢ $45 127d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $44 127d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $44 127d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $46 127d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 127d
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 97¢ $43 127d
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 97¢ $43 127d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $48 127d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $48 127d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $47 127d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $47 127d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $43 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.62 · official $42.62 (match) · 541 history records