Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CF 0xcfe1…cdfd crypto 94 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$6 (+2%) realized +$9 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%22W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$50
other 24% −$16
weather 14% +$95
sports 11% −$13
world 7% −$2
tech 4% −$5
politics 3% +$2
finance 2% −$4
culture 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +19.4% +8.0% 50% 50% +15.6%
≤30d 41 +1.0% -8.7% 32% 29% -9.2%
≤90d 86 -7.8% -16.6% 26% 23% -17.8%
all 86 -7.8% -16.6% 26% 23% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 23% -17.8%
10% -24.5% 22% -25.7%
15% -31.8% 20% -32.9%
20% -38.5% 17% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses22 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)86 / 94
History coverage64d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 18? No 58¢ 51¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-12%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 85¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 83¢ 78¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? No 94¢ 70¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? No 64¢ 62¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July? No 67¢ 64¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? No 60¢ 58¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.74%? Yes 39¢ 21¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +135%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -26%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $2 +$6 +299%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $4 +$2 +62%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 −$2 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 05 $4 +$2 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 04 $3 −$2 -59%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$2 -68%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 04 $2 +$5 +291%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $2 +$1 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 03 $3 −$2 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $3 +$2 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 35 by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +8%
Will Faye die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $5 −$4 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week May 30 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 30? May 30 $4 −$2 -65%
Will Lee Jang-woo win the 2026 Daejeon mayoral election? May 30 $1 −$1 -70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $3 −$2 -78%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 31? May 29 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $4 −$4 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on May 29? May 29 $5 −$3 -59%
Will the Democrats win the South Dakota governor race in 2026? May 29 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 30? May 29 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 29? May 29 $4 −$4 -96%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 28 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on May 28? May 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on May 28? May 28 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $5 +$4 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27? May 27 $4 +$27 +695%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $2 −$1 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $1 +$4 +271%
Will Manchester United finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Prem May 26 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of t May 26 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 14 $5 −$4 -79%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 by December 31, 2026? May 04 $3 −$1 -44%
Will AKEL win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el May 04 $2 +$1 +39%
Will the fight be won by submission? May 03 $3 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Tesla open orders for the Robovan before 2027? May 03 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Le Mans FC vs. Stade de Reims end in a draw? May 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the median home value in Chicago be between $336,000 and $338,000 May 02 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Apr May 02 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 64¢ $4 6h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY No 60¢ $3 6h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 58¢ $3 7h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 18? BUY No 58¢ $3 7h
Kash Patel out by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $12 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 9h
Will The MongolZ make a roster change before July? BUY No 67¢ $4 9h
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 35h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $4 5d
Exact Score: DR Congo 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY No 94¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 16¢ $3 8d
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 57¢ $3 9d
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 10d
Will Gerlando Alonge win the 2026 Agrigento mayoral election? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 11d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 25¢ $1 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 57¢ $3 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 4? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 13d
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El SELL Yes 56¢ $3 13d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 3? BUY No 62¢ $3 13d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 13d
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 58¢ $4 15d
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 70¢ $4 16d
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week SELL Yes 10¢ $1 16d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.82 · official $29.82 (match) · 153 history records