Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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CF 0xcfde…6650 crypto 1430 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%1336W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$18
14 days+$33
30 days+$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 +3.7% -6.2% 95% 5% -9.0%
≤30d 224 +2.8% -7.0% 98% 2% -8.6%
≤90d 1240 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 0% -11.0%
all 1430 +0.1% -9.4% 93% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 0% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1336 / 94
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1430 / 1430
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1430 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $84 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $69 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $46 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$2 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $12 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $136 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $136 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$16 -62%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $136 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $130 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $136 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $120 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $46 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $29 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $120 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $80 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $12 11m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $3 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $84 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $26 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $69 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $69 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $17 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $46 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $80 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $78 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $8 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $136 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $4 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 25h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $15 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.68 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records