Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

CF
0xcfdc…6dc2
other · 112 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$25 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$25 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$19
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses11 / 100
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage85d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%
Chart Positions 1 History 111 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $81 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $15 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $17 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $62 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 16 $86 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 14 $84 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $79 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $88 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $83 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $80 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $85 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $83 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $88 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 04 $171 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $198 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $366 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $89 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $255 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $81 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 01 $12 $0 +1%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $83 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $175 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $174 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $86 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $166 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $85 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $82 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $86 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $84 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% +$8
politics 20% −$2
sports 6% −$30
economics 5% −$1
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 1h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $24 31h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $12 33h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $12 34h
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $18 2d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 6d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 8d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $17 10d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $17 10d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 11d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 12d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 12d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 19d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $12 20d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 21d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $85 25d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $85 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -2.4% -11.7% 10% 5% -9.8%
all 111 -2.4% -11.7% 10% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -9.8%
10% -20.2% 5% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 5% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.70 · official $18.70 (match) · 307 history records