Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:24:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
CF 0xcfdc…8ed9 crypto 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 524d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate76%35W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$7
crypto 10% +$5
tech 3% $0
sports 2% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 46 +0.5% -9.1% 76% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.8% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

524d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses35 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage524d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? May 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? May 04 $56 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? Apr 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 03 $51 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? Feb 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? Feb 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 01 $42 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 04 $24 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Aug 04 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Yuki Tsunoda be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 28 $5,602 −$6 -0%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 20 $126 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Brighton finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Mar 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 08 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 08 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Ethereum hit $3,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 20 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Greens win the second most seats in the next German election? Feb 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Feb 17 $20 $0 -0%
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? Jan 20 $8 −$1 -9%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 19 $10 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $69 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $64 29d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $16 63d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in April? BUY No 100¢ $56 63d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $29 91d
Will BNB dip to $400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $40 92d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $4 122d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 122d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $51 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $16 149d
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $46 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $10 182d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $59 182d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $49 211d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 240d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 241d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 242d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $14 272d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $45 273d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $22 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $42 302d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 99¢ $24 333d
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $34 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 363d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 395d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 396d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 396d
Will Yuki Tsunoda be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5,596 425d
Will Yuki Tsunoda be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5,602 425d
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? SELL No 100¢ $51 433d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.97 · official $68.97 (match) · 99 history records